The Brewers Just Traded For One Of The Unluckiest Hitters In Baseball

Two time all star Mike Moustakas is ending his long Kansas City career, and heading to Milwaukee.

The powerful third baseman broke out in a contract year last season, batting .272 with a career high 38 HR and .835 OPS. His numbers have started to fade off in the last month or so, his BA dipping below .250 and his OPS hitting .775.

However, a lot of this has seemed to stem from bad luck. Moustakas is still hitting just as many fly balls and line drives as he did last season, and his 44.2% hard contact rate is more than 10% higher than last season. His expected BA (xBA) is nearly .300, while his xSLG is .534, both significantly higher than his actual marks.

His BABIP is the biggest teller of his bad luck. He’s batting just .247 on balls in play, where as league average usually floats around .300.

Moustakas ranks 10th in baseball this season with 138 balls hit 95 mph or harder. On such balls, Moustakas is batting .441, which ranks 92nd out of 97 players with at least 100 hard hit balls. That there is just bad luck.

Correspondingly with the trade, Travis Shaw will move over to 2B to fit Moustakas into the infield. Shaw has batted .246/.344/.468 this season with 19 HR.

Kansas City walks away with two prospects who’ve spent time in the majors. Phillips batted .276 with a .799 OPS in nearly 100 PA’s last season, while Lopez owns a 2.75 ERA in 20 innings this season. Both will likely join the Kansas City roster this season.


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